Ternary Belief Elicitation (New!)
Abstract
There is an apparent trade-off in belief elicitation methodologies used in experimental economics. Of the two main mechanisms, binarized scoring rules have stronger incentives, but probability price lists require weaker preference assumptions. We resolve this trade-off by introducing a new methodology, the ternary price list. The ternary price list has incentives as strong as those of even the best binarized scoring rules but with the weaker incentive-compatibility requirements of price lists. Furthermore, in the limit, the uniform ternary price list's incentives are identical to those of the binarized quadratic scoring rule.
Citation
Healy, P.J. and Leo, Greg, Ternary Belief Elicitation
Paper
Ternary Belief Elicitation